When we gave the home team X%, how often did it win?
Every season · dots on the diagonal = the percentages mean what they say
The likely range on each game page should hold about two results in three. It held 69% of totals and 68% of margins.
How accurate are our estimates?
We replayed every regular-season game since 2015-16 in order, for every rotation player (15+ minutes a game over his previous 10). Before each game we made the estimate with only what was known that morning, then checked what happened. A good estimate’s 70% calls come true about 70% of the time.
Live record from 2026-27
From the first game of the 2026-27 season we save every estimate before tip-off, next to the sportsbook line of that moment. After the game we check it against the result and the closing line. That record only grows forward and cannot be edited after the fact.
What break-even means
A sportsbook price says how often a side has to win to come out even over many tries. At −110 a $110 stake wins $100, so it has to win 110 times in 210: 52.4%. At +150 a $100 stake wins $150: 100 in 250, 40.0%. That number still holds the book’s fee, which is why the over and the under add up to more than 100%.
Apps like PrizePicks and Underdog pay a multiple of the entry instead of a price on each leg. From the app’s payout table we work out the hit rate every leg needs for the entry to come out even. A 6-leg PrizePicks Flex (25x all hit, 2x one miss, 0.4x two misses) needs 54.2% on each leg, like −118 on every leg. That assumes every leg has the same chance and the legs are independent. Payout tables as the apps publish them, checked Oct 2, 2026.
The price check on a player page puts our estimate next to the break-even, in percentage points. A difference is arithmetic, not a recommendation.
Market line
The line most of the sportsbooks we follow post for a player (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM). Market, next to it on the props board, is their chance for your side at that line, with their fee removed.
A book that posts a different line is left out of that chance. Before any book posts a line, the board uses his average instead and marks it AVG.
The replay uses lines built from each player’s recent average, not historical sportsbook lines, so it measures whether the percentages mean what they say, not whether they beat the market. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. For information and entertainment only, not betting advice.