Final · Wed, Oct 28, 7:00 PM ET

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks:MIA 43-39@ATL 46-36

stats from the 2025-26 regular seasonMIA1 day of restATL1 day of rest

Final on Oct 28, 2026, at State Farm Arena: Heat 129, Hawks 117. Before this game, since 2015-16 the Heat were 27-16 against the Hawks in the regular season, and their meetings averaged 217.9 total points. Their previous meeting was on Apr 12, 2026: Heat 143, Hawks 117.

Team comparison

Each line runs from the #30 team to the #1. The tick is the league middle. Hover a stat to see what it means.

StatMIA#30#1ATL

#1752.4%56.1%#11

#13+2.2+2.4#12

#13116.7116.1#14

#11114.5113.8#9

#2120.9118.5#6

#22118.5116.0#18

#2239.4234.5#9

#1103.4101.6#5

#1854.2%55.4%#10

#411.6%12.2%#8

#1725.1%24.2%#20

#150.2140.183#26

#1712.7%13.9%#6

#1740.7%42.9%#11

Market · game total points

From 2026-27 team stats

Projected before tip-off

238.2

Likely range

219 to 258

League average 230.5 · pace +9.9 · team strength −2.2 pts

Total points line (over / under)

Enter the sportsbook’s total. We estimate the chance the game goes over or under.

● Over 238.5

49%

fair odds +103

● Under 238.5

51%

fair odds −103

Accounts for home court and the pace both teams set. Based on 2026-27 games so far (MIA 4, ATL 4) and the 2025-26 season. How accurate is this? An estimate, not betting advice.

MIA · last 15 games

Game total points · over 238.5 in 10 of 15

Over
Under

0100200300400

line 238.5

INDPHIBOSWASTORTORWASATLMINDETCHADALATLINDLAL

ATL · last 15 games

Game total points · over 238.5 in 4 of 15

Over
Under

0100200300

line 238.5

BOSORLBKNNYKCLECLEMIAORLCHAHOUHOUMIACLENOPIND

Points allowed by position

Per game in 2025-26, each position combined · #1 gives up the least

Defense	vs Guards	vs Forwards	vs Centers
MIA	59.8 #25 +2.6 vs league	42.8 #17 −0.0 vs league	17.4 #12 −0.4 vs league
ATL	57.8 #20 +0.6 vs league	42.9 #18 +0.1 vs league	17.9 #18 +0.1 vs league

Blue = gives up more than an average defense, orange = less. No defense data for minutes.

Main players

In this game, most minutes first

Miami Heat	PTS	REB	AST	MIN
Davion Mitchell

Defense

vs Guards

vs Forwards

vs Centers

MIA

59.8 #25

+2.6 vs league

42.8 #17

−0.0 vs league

17.4 #12

−0.4 vs league

ATL

57.8 #20

+0.6 vs league

42.9 #18

+0.1 vs league

17.9 #18

+0.1 vs league

Miami Heat	PTS	REB	AST	MIN
Davion Mitchell

Miami Heat

PTS

REB

AST

MIN

Davion Mitchell

Atlanta Hawks	PTS	REB	AST	MIN
Jalen Johnson F	12	9	11	36
Nickeil Alexander-Walker G	23	3	1	32
Onyeka Okongwu F	11	4	4	31